9781119302605

Probability, Decisions and Games: A Gentle Introduction using R

By 作者: Abel Rodríguez - Bruno Mendes

ISBN-10 书号: 1119302609

ISBN-13 书号: 9781119302605

Edition 版本: 1

Release Finelybook 出版日期: 2018-04-24

Pages 页数: 240

INTRODUCES THE FUNDAMENTALS OF PROBABILITY, STATISTICS, DECISION THEORY, AND GAME THEORY, AND FEATURES INTERESTING EXAMPLES OF GAMES OF CHANCE AND STRATEGY TO MOTIVATE AND ILLUSTRATE ABSTRACT MATHEMATICAL CONCEPTS

Covering both random and strategic games, Probability, Decisions and Games features a variety of gaming and gambling examples to build a better understanding of basic concepts of probability, statistics, decision theory, and game theory. The authors present fundamental concepts such as random variables, rational choice theory, mathematical expectation and variance, fair games, combinatorial calculus, conditional probability, Bayes Theorem, Bernoulli trials, zero-sum games and Nash equilibria, as well as their application in games such as Roulette, Craps, Lotto, Blackjack, Poker, Rock-Paper-Scissors, the Game of Chicken and Tic-Tac-Toe. Computer simulations, implemented using the popular R computing environment, are used to provide intuition on key concepts and verify complex calculations.

The book starts by introducing simple concepts that are carefully motivated by the same historical examples that drove their original development of the field of probability, and then applies those concepts to popular contemporary games. The first two chapters of Probability, Decisions and Games: A Gentle Introduction using R feature an introductory discussion of probability and rational choice theory in finite and discrete spaces that builds upon the simple games discussed in the famous correspondence between Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat. Subsequent chapters utilize popular casino games such as Roulette and Blackjack to expand on these concepts illustrate modern applications of these methodologies. Finally, the book concludes with discussions on game theory using a number of strategic games. This book:

Features introductory coverage of probability, statistics, decision theory and game theory, and has been class-tested at University of California, Santa Cruz for the past six years

Illustrates basic concepts in probability through interesting and fun examples using a number of popular casino games: roulette, lotto, craps, blackjack, and poker

Introduces key ideas in game theory using classic games such as Rock-Paper-Scissors, Chess, and Tic-Tac-Toe.

Features computer simulations using R throughout in order to illustrate complex concepts and help readers verify complex calculations

Contains exercises and approaches games and gambling at a level that is accessible for readers with minimal experience

Adopts a unique approach by motivating complex concepts using first simple games and then moving on to more complex, well-known games that illustrate how these concepts work together

About the Companion Website

Chapter 1:An Introduction to Probability

Chapter 2:Expectations and Fair Values

Chapter 3:Roulette

Chapter 4:Lotto and Combinatorial Numbers

Chapter 5:The Monty Hall Paradox and Conditional Probabilities

Chapter 6:Craps

Chapter 7:Roulette Revisited

Chapter 8:Blackjack

Chapter 9:Poker

Chapter 10:Strategic Zero-Sum Games with Perfect Information

Chapter 11:Rock-Paper-Scissors:Mixed Strategies in Zero-Sum Games

Chapter 12:The Prisoner's Dilemma and Other Strategic Non-zero-sum Games

Chapter 13:Tic-Tac-Toe and Other Sequential Games of Perfect Information

Appendix A:A Brief Introduction toR

Index

End User License Agreement

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